Night Owls

TheyKnow wrote:Once that hardcore crowd burns off their pre-purchased tickets this weekend, your average working folks are not signing up for a three-hour marathon on a whim.

Indeed. When exhibitors exhaust their pre-booked capacity so rapidly, the subsequent collapse in admissions will be stark.

No need to look for dark motives, TheyKnow. Selling tickets whenever people will buy them is just business, not a scheme.

Either way, have a pint for us in Leeds, PintOfMild, but mind you leave the plot details at the door when you post later.

-- Kev (mod)

Sysop_Kev wrote:Either way, have a pint for us in Leeds, PintOfMild, but mind you leave the plot details at the door when you post later.

Just back from the cinema and having a quiet pint to digest it all! Mum's the word on the plot, Kev, cross my heart. But blimey, what an experience! Absolutely epic stuff, though by the end my back was proper killing me. You definitely feel every single minute of that running time in your legs!

Seeing the foyer packed to the gills at midnight felt like a proper event, but no chance your average Joe does that twice. Anyone fancy a swift half down the Scarbrough Taps tomorrow to help me recover? Cheers

PintOfMild wrote:Seeing the foyer packed to the gills at midnight felt like a proper event, but no chance your average Joe does that twice.

PintOfMild just proved the point better than any spreadsheet could, my friend... when a devoted fan walks out with their back aching and says there is NO chance an average Joe does that twice, you know the engine is running on fumes!

Kev, you are being way too trusting if you think Disney running these turnstiles day and night without stopping is just ordinary business. Follow the money... they are burning through every single pre-booked ticket right now because they know full well the repeat business is zero once folks realize the physical toll of sitting in a dark room for over three hours!

OffByOne sees it clearly... once you exhaust that built-in capacity by Sunday, the drop is going to hit like a brick wall. When an experience leaves paying customers feeling like they need physical therapy the next morning, word travels fast. The studio grabbed their cash up front, but come next week when I take my nephew up to Edinburgh, we are going to see plenty of elbow room in those rows.

Sure look, we will see what the actual figures look like next week once the rush clears out.

Sysop_Kev wrote:Sure look, we will see what the actual figures look like next week once the rush clears out.

That is really all there is to it, Kev... the actual numbers always tell the real tale once the initial smoke clears.

Looking at the news from overseas yesterday, they pulled in 169 million dollars in a single day across those first international territories, which sounds mighty impressive on paper. But when you look closer, places like Korea and Australia and all those midnight showings in China are just burning through all their die-hard traffic right up front. exhibitors are running screens twenty-four hours a day just to squeeze everyone through the turnstiles before the weekend is even over.

Once people go back to their regular routines on Monday, nobody has four spare hours on a work night to go sit through a three-hour marathon. You simply cannot maintain that kind of traffic without casual walk-up ticket sales, and ordinary folks will just wait for the home release instead. We will get an honest look at the real demand soon enough, and my nephew and I will see firsthand how quiet those rows are in Edinburgh next week.

TheyKnow wrote:Kev, you are being way too trusting if you think Disney running these turnstiles day and night without stopping is just ordinary business.

There is no corporate intrigue required to explain why exhibitors schedule overnight screenings when demand spikes; it is straightforward capacity management. If people are queuing to pay, venues naturally add showtimes.

That said, the international returns of $169 million on day one simply reflect the same front-loading we saw in the domestic presales. Meeting unprecedented demand across Korea, Australia, and China by utilizing round-the-clock schedules is an impressive operational feat, but it remains an extraordinary measure. Once that initial rush subsides and standard operational hours resume, the substantial runtime will inevitably assert itself as a deterrent for casual cinemagoers. We must wait for the post-weekend holds to see true retention.

sorry if this is silly to ask as a newbie, but doesn't burning through all those pre-sales so fast basically guarantee a massive drop next week?? quasistatic and offbyone put it so well! once our anzac crowds clear out, i reckon casual moviegoers will just stay home lol. avatar is completely safe!!

kookaburra99 wrote:sorry if this is silly to ask as a newbie, but doesn't burning through all those pre-sales so fast basically guarantee a massive drop next week??

It is not a silly observation at all. What you are describing is the standard mathematical pattern for highly anticipated franchise installments.

When a film relies almost entirely on advance bookings, exhibitors clear the vast majority of their customer base during the opening seventy-two hours. Once that committed audience has attended, the remaining pool consists of uncommitted viewers. For those individuals, allocating more than three hours of leisure time presents a clear disincentive. A steep decline from Monday onward is the logical outcome, and without steady secondary footfall, surpassing Avatar's total admissions remains quite impossible. That will make attending in Rotterdam next week much more pleasant.

OffByOne wrote:When a film relies almost entirely on advance bookings, exhibitors clear the vast majority of their customer base during the opening seventy-two hours.

that breakdown makes total sense. when all the hardcore fans clear out over the next couple of days, the drop is going to be massive. casual viewers simply won't bother committing to that runtime, so the record isn't going anywhere.

OffByOne wrote:A steep decline from Monday onward is the logical outcome, and without steady secondary footfall, surpassing Avatar's total admissions remains quite impossible. That will make attending in Rotterdam next week much more pleasant.

Rotterdam or Edinburgh, you will both have an easier time of it finding a seat once Monday rolls around, no doubt. But whether that steep drop actually materialises is still just guessing. Better to hold the post-mortems until we have real hold percentages on the board.

That sixty million from Thursday night previews down south shows the front-loading is well under way, but Kev is right. Working out the final verdict before the first full weekend even finishes is putting the cart before the horse. Let us see what the actual receipts show once the early rush settles.

Punchcard wrote:Working out the final verdict before the first full weekend even finishes is putting the cart before the horse. Let us see what the actual receipts show once the early rush settles.

Quite right. While sixty million dollars in US previews is a remarkable opening sum, preview totals reflect pent-up advance demand rather than long-term staying power. The sixty-percent drops typical of these releases depend entirely on what happens once the weekend clears. We simply need the audited figures from Monday before drawing conclusions.

Fair enough, folks... we will let the dust settle over the weekend and see where the cards fall Monday.

TheyKnow wrote:Fair enough, folks... we will let the dust settle over the weekend and see where the cards fall Monday.

Sensible approach. Enjoy the quiet weekend, lads, and we can look at the returns when they land.