Night Owls

kookaburra99 · kookaburra99, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 10:39 GMT

Sysop_Kev wrote:

They will hold up their yellow cards at two o'clock Prague time, someone will count them, and we will either have eight planets on paper or no agreement at all.

It really comes down to 5A then. If clearing your orbital neighbourhood is the rule, Pluto simply cannot qualify as a major planet no matter how much people love it. I just hope the delegates can actually agree on the wording when the cards go up, because stalling out now would be ridiculous.

PintOfMild · PintOfMild, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 10:39 GMT

kookaburra99 wrote:

It really comes down to 5A then. If clearing your orbital neighbourhood is the rule, Pluto simply cannot qualify as a major planet no matter how much people love it.

Too right, mate, it all hinges on that clearing the neighbourhood clause in 5A. If that gets through with a solid show of yellow cards, the game is up for the little lad as a major planet. It is going to feel strange seeing only eight in the books after growing up with nine, but fair play to them, the logic does hold up when you look at all the other stuff floating out beyond Neptune.

My only worry is still what quasistatic brought up yesterday about the whole thing stalling out. With four separate bits to vote on, you could easily get folk backing the dwarf planet label in 6A but bickering over the exact wording in 5A or 5B, and then we are back to square one with no proper answer at all. That would be daft after everyone spent the whole week shouting at microphones! Still, at least the delegates have had the papers all morning to mull it over. Fingers crossed they get a clean count this afternoon so we finally know where we stand.

Punchcard · Punchcard, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 10:42 GMT

Back when we revised the transaction codes in '78, people lobbied right until the bell rang, but once the ballots were cast, that was that.

Now that the text is printed, we just have to let the members raise their cards this afternoon. We will see where Pluto lands soon enough.

Walter

quasistatic · quasistatic, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 10:55 GMT

The printed text does make the procedural path much clearer, though last-minute interventions are evidently not quite finished. Brian Marsden and several colleagues reportedly walked into the press room this morning proposing 'planetino' instead of 'dwarf planet', which shows how persistent the terminology debates remain.

Resolution 5A is certainly the pivotal piece. The physics is unambiguous: Pluto shares its zone with a vast swarm of trans-Neptunian bodies, so it has manifestly not cleared its neighbourhood. The genuine uncertainty is whether the hall can maintain a working majority across all four votes. If 5A fails, the entire classification stalls. We shall see what the card counts bring once the session opens at noon UTC.

kookaburra99 · kookaburra99, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 10:59 GMT

Honestly, 'planetino' just sounds like another distraction right before the bell. We already know the clearing the orbit test in 5A is the real physics question here. Let's just hope everyone sticks to their guns and gets 5A across the line so the whole meeting does not fall apart over brand new labels.

Sysop_Kev · Sysop_Kev, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 12:16 GMT

Planetino sounds like something you would order in an Italian cafe. Sure look, the session is underway in Prague now anyway. If 5A passes the card count, grand, we have eight planets. If they bicker and stall, the rock is still floating out there unbothered. We will have the numbers soon enough.

PintOfMild · PintOfMild, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 12:41 GMT

Blimey, Marsden turning up with 'planetino' at the eleventh hour is a classic! Let's just hope nobody gets side-tracked by that now the session has actually kicked off. As Kev says, cards should be going up any minute. If 5A clears, Pluto is out, but at least we'll finally have an answer.

quasistatic · quasistatic, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 12:44 GMT

PintOfMild wrote:

Let's just hope nobody gets side-tracked by that now the session has actually kicked off.

The 'planetino' intervention is an amusing diversion, but procedural rules mean delegates can only vote on the printed text before them.

Now that the session has commenced in Prague, the central issue is whether the assembly holds together under formal counting. Two specific hurdles will determine the outcome this afternoon:

1. The baseline threshold on 5A: establishing orbital dominance as an essential criterion. Dynamically, Pluto is merely an occupant of the Kuiper belt, but approving the phrasing requires delegates to accept that an eight-planet model is preferable to an ambiguous status quo.

2. Clause coherence across the sequence: delegates must avoid approving dwarf status in 6A while rejecting the foundational boundary in 5A, which would produce a contradictory taxonomy.

In short: the physics is sound, but we must wait to see if the yellow cards deliver an orderly majority or fractured gridlock.

PintOfMild · PintOfMild, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 13:03 GMT

That breakdown puts it in a nutshell, quasistatic. The real test is whether everybody actually pulls together in the room when the hands go up, rather than splitting down the middle and leaving the whole thing in a complete mess. It would be classic conference form to see half the room fancying a dwarf category while balking at the clearing rule that makes it work, but let us hope common sense wins the day.

If they do manage an orderly show of yellow cards on 5A, the debate is pretty much settled, even if it feels a bit sad waving goodbye to the ninth planet we all memorised as lads. At least Jocelyn Bell Burnell and the rest gave everyone a straight choice instead of dragging it out into another year of committee meetings. The session has been running an hour now, so the tellers must be busy counting the cards as we speak. Not long now until we see if the eight-planet system actually carried the room.

Punchcard · Punchcard, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 14:25 GMT

It is quite true that a floor vote can unravel quickly if people lose the thread of the main motion. Back in '71 we had forty analysts debating a batch structure, and if you let them tinker with subsidiary clauses before agreeing on the master record, the whole afternoon was lost.

From what the wires say, the session has already moved past the early business. The tellers will have their hands full tabulating those cards, but once the counts on 5A and 6A are recorded in the minutes, the ledger will be settled one way or the other. We only have to wait for the final tally to come through.

Walter

PintOfMild · PintOfMild, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 14:41 GMT

Well, that is that then, mates! News wires are reporting 5A passed with a clear sea of yellow cards, and 5B got completely flattened. Mike Brown is already saying Pluto is dead and we are officially down to eight planets. Feels strange, but good on them for settling it at last.

TheyKnow · TheyKnow, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 15:30 GMT

Look at the turnout, folks... Barely 424 people actually voted this afternoon out of ten thousand members, right as everyone else was heading home. Dr. Stern at New Horizons is already organizing a petition against it, and even Owen Gingerich says the whole thing is flawed. That is hardly settled science, my friend... Pluto isn't going anywhere.

kookaburra99 · kookaburra99, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 15:40 GMT

They held a proper floor vote and 5A passed with a clear majority, so Pluto is officially a dwarf planet now. People can organise all the petitions they like, but the IAU sets the definitions and the yellow cards settled it. It makes teaching the solar system heaps simpler anyway.

Punchcard · Punchcard, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 16:16 GMT

TheyKnow wrote:

Barely 424 people actually voted this afternoon out of ten thousand members, right as everyone else was heading home.

Complaining about the head count on the final afternoon is standard form when a vote goes against your preference, but that is simply how parliamentary meetings operate. The rules required members to be in the room with their yellow cards, and those who stayed to do the work delivered a decisive verdict.

Resolution 5A carried comfortably, and the formal IAU announcement confirms we have eight planets and a sensible separate category for dwarf planets. Petitions may make people feel better, but the official ledger is closed. Pluto has its rightful place as a dwarf planet now, and science carries on.

quasistatic · quasistatic, as of 24 Aug 2006 at 16:16 GMT

I must admit my earlier scepticism about procedural paralysis was misplaced. The assembly managed to pass Resolution 5A decisively without unravelling. A low turnout on the final afternoon does not invalidate a valid floor vote. Pluto belongs dynamically with the Kuiper belt, and the formal definition now reflects that physical reality.